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Dynamic stochastic estimation of physical variables   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
A fundamental problem facing the physical sciences today is analysis of natural variations and mapping of spatiotemporal processes. Detailed maps describing the space/time distribution of groundwater contaminants, atmospheric pollutant deposition processes, rainfall intensity variables, external intermittency functions, etc. are tools whose importance in practical applications cannot be overestimated. Such maps are valuable inputs for numerous applications including, for example, solute transport, storm modeling, turbulent-nonturbulent flow characterization, weather prediction, and human exposure to hazardous substances. The approach considered here uses the spatiotemporal random field theory to study natural space/time variations and derive dynamic stochastic estimates of physical variables. The random field model is constructed in a space/time continuum that explicitly involves both spatial and temporal aspects and provides a rigorous representation of spatiotemporal variabilities and uncertainties. This has considerable advantages as regards analytical investigations of natural processes. The model is used to study natural space/time variations of springwater calcium ion data from the Dyle River catchment area, Belgium. This dataset is characterized by a spatially nonhomogeneous and temporally nonstationary variability that is quantified by random field parameters, such as orders of space/time continuity and random field increments. A rich class of covariance models is determined from the properties of the random field increments. The analysis leads to maps of continuity orders and covariances reflecting space/time calcium ion correlations and trends. Calcium ion estimates and the associated statistical errors are calculated at unmeasured locations/instants over the Dyle region using a space/time kriging algorithm. In practice, the interpretation of the results of the dynamic stochastic analysis should take into consideration the scale effects.  相似文献   
76.
A review and analysis of chemical and nuclear explosive-induced porewater pressure increases and induced rise in groundwater table elevations (groundwater mounding) is presented. Our analysis indicates that residual pore pressure increases and groundwater mounding can be induced by underground chemical and nuclear explosions to scaled distances of 879 m/(kt)1/3. This relationship is linear over seven orders of magnitude of explosive energy ranging from a 0.01 kg chemical explosion to a 100 kt nuclear explosion and is valid for a wide variety of saturated geological profiles. Underground chemical explosions, and probably underground nuclear explosions have the potential to induce liquefaction of water-saturated soils to scaled distances of about 260 m/(kt)1/3.  相似文献   
77.
Lake Koronia, a Ramsar site, is shallow, polymictic, hypertrophic and until recently was aerially the fourth largest lake in Greece. Although exceeding 5 m in the past, lake depth has declined progressively from 3.8 m in 1980 to < 1 m in 1997, reducing surface area and water volume by 50% and 80%, respectively. Specific conductivityincreased from 1300 μS cm−1 in 1977 to >6000 μS cm−1 in 1991. Increased phosphate concentrations from the late 1970's (8–45 μg L−1) to the late 1990's (100–1000 μg L−1) document that the previously eutrophic system with a limited littoral zone switched to hypertrophy dominated by massive cyanobacteria blooms. Oxygen saturation of the water column increased progressively from about 80% in 1983 to full saturation about 1993, after which it decreased progressively to only 20% saturation in 1997. In spite of cyanobacteria dominance, community metabolism of the lake switched from progressively increasing autotrophy to rapidly advancing heterotrophy associated with progressive water-level reduction leading to fish extirpation in the lake.  相似文献   
78.
The structures of sodium silicate and aluminosilicate glasses quenched from melts at high pressure (6-10 GPa) with varying degrees of polymerization (fractions of nonbridging oxygen) were explored using solid-state NMR [17O and 27Al triple-quantum magic-angle spinning (3QMAS) NMR]. The bond connectivity in melts among four and highly coordinated network polyhedra, such as [4]Al, [5,6]Al, [4]Si, and [5,6]Si, at high pressure is shown to be significantly different from that at ambient pressure. In particular, in the silicate and aluminosilicate melts, the proportion of nonbridging oxygen (NBO) generally decreases with increasing pressure, leading to the formation of new oxygen clusters that include 5- and 6-coordinated Si and Al in addition to 4-coordinated Al and Si, such as [4]Si-O-[5,6]Si, [4]Si-O-[5,6]Al and Na-O-[5,6]Si. While the fractions of [5,6]Al increase with pressure, the magnitude of this increase diminishes with increasing degrees of ambient-pressure polymerization under isobaric conditions. Incorporating the above structural information into models of melt properties reproduces the anomalous pressure-dependence of O2− diffusivity and viscosity often observed in silicate melts.  相似文献   
79.
Geological mapping and diamond exploration in northern Quebec and Labrador has revealed an undeformed ultramafic dyke swarm in the northern Torngat Mountains. The dyke rocks are dominated by an olivine-phlogopite mineralogy and contain varying amounts of primary carbonate. Their mineralogy, mineral compositional trends and the presence of typomorphic minerals (e.g. kimzeyitic garnet), indicate that these dykes comprise an ultramafic lamprophyre suite grading into carbonatite. Recognized rock varieties are aillikite, mela-aillikite and subordinate carbonatite. Carbonatite and aillikite have in common high carbonate content and a lack of clinopyroxene. In contrast, mela-aillikites are richer in mafic silicate minerals, in particular clinopyroxene and amphibole, and contain only small amounts of primary carbonate. The modal mineralogy and textures of the dyke varieties are gradational, indicating that they represent end-members in a compositional continuum.

The Torngat ultramafic lamprophyres are characterized by high but variable MgO (10–25 wt.%), CaO (5–20 wt.%), TiO2 (3–10 wt.%) and K2O (1–4 wt.%), but low SiO2 (22–37 wt.%) and Al2O3 (2–6 wt.%). Higher SiO2, Al2O3, Na2O and lower CO2 content distinguish the mela-aillikites from the aillikites. Whereas the bulk rock major and trace element concentrations of the aillikites and mela-aillikites overlap, there is no fractional crystallization relation between them. The major and trace element characteristics imply related parental magmas, with minor olivine and Cr-spinel fractionation accounting for intra-group variation.

The Torngat ultramafic lamprophyres have a Neoproterozoic age and are spatially and compositionally closely related with the Neoproterozoic ultramafic lamprophyres from central West Greenland. Ultramafic potassic-to-carbonatitic magmatism occurred in both eastern Laurentia and western Baltica during the Late Neoproterozoic. It can be inferred from the emplacement ages of the alkaline complexes and timing of Late Proterozoic processes in the North Atlantic region that this volatile-rich, deep-seated igneous activity was a distal effect of the breakup of Rodinia. This occurred during and/or after the rift-to-drift transition that led to the opening of the Iapetus Ocean.  相似文献   

80.
Modeling landscape with high-resolution digital elevation model (DEM) in a geographic information system can provide essential morphological and structural information for modeling surface processes such as geomorphologic process and water systems. This paper introduces several DEM-based spatial analysis processes applied to characterize spatial distribution and their interactions of ground and surface water systems in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA), Canada. The stream networks and drainage basin systems were derived from the DEM with 30 m resolution and the regularities of the surface stream and drainage patterns were modeled from a statistical/multifractal point of view. Together with the elevation and slope of topography, other attributes defmed from modeling the stream system, and drainage networks were used to associate geological, hydrological and topographical features to water flow in river systems and the spatial locations of artesian aquifers in the study area. Stream flow data derived from daily flow measurements recorded at river gauging stations for multi-year period were decomposed into “drainage-area dependent“ and “drainage-area independent“ flow components by two-step “frequency“ and “spatial“ analysis processes. The latter component was further demonstrated to relate most likely to the ground water discharge. An independent analysis was conducted to model the distribution of aquifers with information derived from the records of water wells. The focus was given on quantification of the likelihood of ground water discharge to river and ponds through flowing wells, springs and seepages. It has been shown that the Oak Ridges Moraine (ORM) is a unique glacial deposit that serves as a recharge layer and that the aquifers in the ORM underlain by Hilton Tills and later deposits exposed near the steep slope zone of the ridges of ORM provide significant discharge to the surface water systems (river flow and ponds) through flowing wells, springs and seepages. Various statistics (cross- and auto-correlation coefficients, fractal R/S exponent) were used in conjunction with GIS to demonstrate the influence of land types, topography and geometry of drainage basins on short- and long-term persistence of river flows as well as responding time to precipitation events. The current study has provided not only insight in understanding the interaction of water systems in the GTA, but also a base for further establishment of an on-line GIS system for predicting spatial-temporal changes of river flow and groundwater level in the GTA.  相似文献   
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